Tag Archives: marc lavoie

Link

Marc Lavoie’s Lecture On Policy Response To The Pandemic From A Post-Keynesian Perspective

There’s a lecture (on Zoom) by Marc Lavoie hosted by Department of Economics at Kyungpook National University, from January this year which I only found recently.

The lecture is on some aspects of policies such as fiscal policy, large scale asset purchases by central banks (LSAP, or “QE”) during the pandemic and some comments on neochartalism or “MMT”. Basically distinguishing PKE and neochartalism.

Enjoy!

JPKE Special Issue: The Legacy Of Wynne Godley

There was a conference on the 10th death anniversary of Wynne Godley last year. If you haven’t seen it, the video recordings/presentation/remarks are in that link.

Now, there’s a special issue by the JPKE about the conference with papers as in the cover:

Happy reading!

Inflation Accounting

A good macroeconomic model would use national accounts and the flow of funds with behavioural hypotheses. It’s complicated by the fact that prices of goods and services change. It’s not just that if prices of goods and services change, you’re consumption would change in response to that, but also because say the deposits you hold in the bank is worth less.

So your behavioural equations need to be modified. It’s not easy. Wynne Godley recalls in his book Monetary Economics:

And no lesser authority than Richard Stone (1973) made the same mistake because in his definition of real income he did not deduct the erosion, due to inflation, of the real value of household wealth.

References

Stone, R. (1973) ‘Personal spending and saving in post war Britain’ in H.C. Bos, H. Linneman and P. de Wolff (eds), Economic Structure and Development: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen (Amsterdam: North Holland), pp. 75–98.

The system of national accounts does recognise the importance of this but there aren’t any real variables defined. Real as opposed to nominal. Instead holding gains (formal phrase for “capital gains”) is divided into two parts: real holding gains and neutral holding gains. So,

Nominal holding gains = real holding gains + neutral holding gains.

Assets prices can rise differently than prices of goods and services. Para 12.89 says:

The real holding gain on an asset is defined as the difference between the nominal and the neutral holding gain on that asset. The values of the real holding gains on assets thus depend on the movements of their prices over the period in question, relative to movements of other prices, on average, as measured by the general price index. An increase in the relative price of an asset leads to a positive real holding gain and a decrease in the relative price of an asset leads to a negative real gain, whether the general price level is rising, falling or stationary.

Of course we should consider holding gains and losses on liabilities as well.

This is anyway complicated practically. I haven’t yet seen national accounts of any country producing such tables. But the SNA—including the 2008 SNA—doesn’t have any framework beyond this. This is because it considers that economic behaviour would be different for real holding gains or losses, as opposed to just the flow aspect.

In other words, if your (nominal) income is $100 and there’s a 10% inflation, your consumption would fall. But you might not react the same if you have a real holding loss of $10.

But to a first approximation you could simplify and bring real holding gains into real income. I have simplified quite a bit and these are quite challenging things, so I refer you to Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie’s (G&L)’s book Monetary Economics.

I wrote this post after an online discussion about the government “inflating away the nominal debt”. Although such claims are loaded, there is some logic to it. In inflation accounting, holding gains/losses appear in incomes. Modeling involves going back and forth between real and nominal variables.

An original writing is that of Wynne Godley (and Ken Coutts and Graham Gudgin)—a 1985 paper titled Inflation Accounting Of Whole Economic Systems. In that you see the equation:

(Snipped from the 2012 reprint).

So the government disposable income (in addition to taxes and central bank profits, also has the holding losses due to the fact that prices of goods and services has increased in the period, not just because of changes in prices of government bonds).

Of course, there’s also the loadedness of the phrase “inflating away the debt”. That’s a different matter, my point here is to address the intuition of why inflation can be thought of as bringing revenue to the government and reducing its debt.

The 2021 Godley-Tobin Lecture: Marc Lavoie, “Godley Versus Tobin On Monetary Matters”

This year’s Godley-Tobin lecture is by Marc Lavoie who is talking about Wynne Godley’s versus James Tobin’s approaches.

You can register here.

James Tobin pioneered the stock-flow consistent modeling. He won the Nobel Prize for it. You can find his Nobel lecture Money And Finance In The Macroeconomic Process here.

Although quite brilliant, there are many shortcomings in James Tobin’s approach. The genius of Wynne’s approach was to overcome those.

Do The Neochartalists Advocate “Printing Money”?

The question is wrong 🤡

It’s commonly claimed by the opponents of neochartalism or “modern monetary theory” or “MMT”, that the theory advocates the use of “money-financed deficits” or “printing money”—the lowbrow language. This claim is because of a poor understanding of the theory and I say this as a critic. Many Post-Keynesians who don’t identify as chartalists also keep spreading this. Of course this isn’t the complete story as the neochartalists themselves create this confusion indirectly/unknowingly about their own theory.

Imagine a financial system such as in Canada where banks have zero reserve requirements and little bank settlement balances/reserves outside crises. The government can expand fiscal policy by simply raising government expenditure. You could think of the deficit in one period/year as “endogenous”, which will depend on how much taxes come in, which in turn depends on how the private sector responds to the stimulus (with complications of international trade). The difference between the two will be the “net borrowing” in the language of national accounts. If there’s a surplus, the government would be a net lender. But let’s assume it’s in deficit. The government has an account at the Bank of Canada and it will make this shortfall by issuing debt.

The private sector would have additional income and wealth because of the stimulus and the borrowing. Because: the stimulus would raise output and income of the private sector and also because the very act of deficit also adds to the private sector wealth.

Banks would lend more because of the rise in output would lead to more demand for loans, the central bank has a large control of the interest rates and could even set the whole yield curve. There’s no crowding out and the reserve requirement is zero! Banks would also also have more income and their capital-adequacy would improve to allow them to lend more.

Loans make deposits and in the aggregate they won’t be constrained really in lending although individual banks would need to fund themselves as not raising would cause them to have large overdrafts at the Bank of Canada, the central bank and they might run out of collateral to post at the central bank.

The private sector would decide how much of its wealth it wants to allocate in banknotes and how much in government bonds and other financial assets. If the private sector wants more banknotes, they’ll ask their banks which in turn would obtain from the Bank of Canada by going in an overdraft. The Bank of Canada would buy government bonds in the financial markets and bring the reserves back to zero from negative.

In other words, the amount of banknotes and government bonds that the private sector wishes to hold is entirely decided by the private sector. The phrase “money-financed deficits” implies that the Canadian government and the Bank of Canada decide how much this is and is misleading.

Anything here is a typical story in neochartalism. Although neochartalist would like to go more such as proposing “no-bonds” with all deficit spending from the beginning of time to be reflected in banks’ settlement balances at the Bank of Canada, it’s not like a strict requirement that neochartalism would only work with zero-bonds. They’d be comparatively happy with more fiscal expansion than no expansion or contraction or an expansion which is not much.

The main reason for the stimulus and the rise in output would be the act of increased spending of the government itself. Money vs. bonds decided by the private sector needs.

The reason neochartalists’ claim sound like “printing-money” in the lowbrow language is that the above dynamics is poorly understood by their opponents, because monetarism is a prejudice which affects almost everyone.

But to complicate that’s not all. There’s a Stephanie Kelton paper with the title Can Taxes And Bonds Finance Government Spending?

This misleads the reader into thinking that neochartalists are advocating “printing money” but the arguments above show how misleading the phrase itself is. What the “MMTers” are saying is that the government has a virtually large borrowing ability. The phrase “borrowing” makes us thinking that there is some sort of intrinsic constraint. Hence their rejection of the word “borrowing”.

To prove all this, neochartalists try to draw long T-accounts so that the reader is convinced that everything is fine, government deficit is actually mirrored as private sector deficit, the mechanics of central banking in trying to prove in detail how the government can raise as much funds as it wants, so that the reader is convinced there’s no hanky-panky.

But in an effort to prove that they go into overkill. So for example, typically governments can’t have overdrafts at their central bank because neoliberals have made this the law to “discipline” the government. So some positive critics such as Marc Lavoie would try to constructively critique them in a friendly way but others would simply dismiss them using this as an excuse. Neochartalists would respond to former saying that it still doesn’t constrain the government which is true but it’s not a perfect argument.

And in all this they also end up claiming horribly wrong things that taxes needn’t be increased. That is unfortunate as it gives their opponents an even bigger chance to dismiss them. Some like me have criticised them for this too but “MMT” has kind of become this catch-phrase for everything Post-Keynesian so the ones with bad faith exploit it to dismiss the whole of Post-Keynesianism.

More than that, the story falls short because in the case of open economy, the government has constraints, brought because of historic reasons causing large differences in competitiveness between nations. Trade imbalances can cause fiscal policy to be constrained and the international investment position to be unsustainable.

But this part is a digression for this post. The main point is that the claim that “MMT advocates printing money” is a lowbrow claim.

Honouring Marc Lavoie And Mario Seccareccia

There will be a webinar on Aug 22nd in honour of Marc Lavoie and Mario Seccareccia. The details are available on a special Facebook page for this.

There are two volumes of essays in their honour. Links:

  1. Volume 1,
  2. Volume 2.

In addition, there’s a new book (forthcoming) with selected essays of Marc.

Image from Louis-Philippe Rochon

Conference Recordings Of The Legacy Of Wynne Godley

Yesterday, March 13th had a special event, a virtual conference in honour of the great Wynne Godley.

If you hadn’t joined it, you can still view the recordings which have now been made available, thanks to Gennaro Zezza, who organised the event.

Here’s another poster, prior to the event. You can find the picture here.

Picture credit: Levy Institute on Twitter.

All videos now seem available. Check again with the conference page for the presentation or write-ups.